PAS could serve Umno a reality check on pact with PH, says analyst

If PAS makes headway in Johor, Negeri Sembilan or Melaka, analyst Azmi Hassan says it will demonstrate how BN and PH need each other.

Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan said Umno already wields extensive dominance and far-reaching influence in Johor, the party’s birthplace, making it easy for BN to contest the state polls on its own.

Although BN is confident of bettering its two-thirds majority win in 2022, Azmi warned that Umno-BN is not as formidable in several other states, including two that it leads.

“BN may also be strong in Melaka, which is expected to hold its state election later this year.

“But when it comes to the next general election (GE16) and state elections in Pahang, Perak and elsewhere, where BN is not that strong, it will become apparent just how much both BN and PH need each other.

“And, you never know. If PAS performs beyond expectations in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, it would serve BN with a reality check that they do need to work with PH in GE16,” he told FMT.

Azmi believes this is why BN and PH’s unity pact might still have many more years to its lifespan, despite an increase in the bickering between the two coalitions.

Several PH and BN leaders traded barbs after Johor BN announced it would go solo in the 16th state election, expected in July.

Johor Umno chief Onn Hafiz Ghazi ruffled more feathers in PH after saying he would rather forgo the menteri besar’s post than be part of a state government that includes the DAP.

BN and PH will also go their separate ways in the Negeri Sembilan state election, with BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi also saying the coalition was “almost certain” to contest GE16 on its own.

While this has given rise to speculation of Umno reviving its defunct alliance with PAS, which recently severed ties with Bersatu, Zahid said Umno had no intention of resurrecting the pact as the party had “closed the book on it”.

Two willing parties

Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said the key factor that would determine the continuity of BN and PH’s alliance was their willingness to form a coalition government after the polls.

He believed this willingness was “very much intact” in both coalitions, adding that any decision either to collaborate or go their own way at the polls would merely be a tactical choice.

“They can try to convince their respective target voters that the other party is friend or foe, but ultimately, the idea for each of them is to win as many seats as possible, then negotiate for a coalition government after the election.

“A day is a very long time in politics in the current political environment. The idea is to maximise your winning chances in this general election. Everything else can wait, as circumstances would certainly change by then,” said Oh.

Despite being bitter rivals for years, BN and PH joined hands with Gabungan Parti Sarawak, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah and others to form the federal government after the general election in November 2022 resulted in a hung Parliament.