Comment: FTPA benefits GPS and Sarawak, here’s why

THE proposed Fixed Term Parliament Act (FTPA) will not be tabled without the support of Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).

This is why Prime Minister (PM) Anwar Ibrahim said that there was no urgency to enact the proposed FTPA soon after Sarawak Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg expressed his reservation.

There is, of course, an urgency if the government wants to end destabilising plots like the pure speculative Dubai Move and focus on the nation’s development.

However, what will get FTPA in place is not urgency, but GPS’ support. Despite being only the third largest bloc in the Madani Government and the fourth largest bloc in Parliament, GPS now holds the de facto veto power on any major changes for Malaysia.

Abang Johari’s reservation on any change of the status quo was understandable. Both Sarawak and GPS have been the largest beneficiaries of the political transformation that led to hung parliaments and post-election coalition governments.

To get GPS’ support, any changes must strengthen the position of Sarawak and GPS.

So, would the proposed FTPA benefit GPS and Sarawak? To answer this question, we must first be clear of what changes the proposed FTPA would bring to the status quo, and then lay down the criteria to identify the best interests of Sarawak and GPS.

What is FTPA?

The proposed FTPA is a simple but powerful idea – Parliament should serve its full term for five years, unless one of these two exceptional circumstances occurs: first, the government has lost its majority in Parliament, a situation already prescribed by Article 43(4) of the Federal Constitution; and second, two-thirds of the parliamentarians pass a resolution for the PM to seek royal consent for early dissolution.

In Malaysia’s context, this means four changes to the status quo.

First, the first exception requires a clear definition of ‘loss of confidence’, which can rule out the shadowy business of collecting Statutory Declarations (SDs). If governments can only be toppled on the floor of Dewan Rakyat, plots like the Dubai Move cannot confuse the public when the plotters have no number.

Second, for the same reason, it requires amendments to the Dewan Rakyat Standing Orders to prioritise motions of confidence and no-confidence. This makes mid-term change of government easier, if coalition partners decide to pull out while the Anti-Hoping Law (AHL) deters defection of individual MPs.

Third, the power to seek royal consent for early dissolution is no longer monopolised by the prime minister, but must be shared with fellow parliamentarians who constitute a two-third majority.

For coalition governments, this prevents the prime minister from calling a snap election when junior partners are not ready. This indeed was why the UK enacted its FTPA under the Conservatives-Liberal Democrats coalition government.

Fourth, unless one of the two exceptions happens, the date of Parliament’s automatic dissolution is known on the first day a new Parliament is convened, and the next election date is predictable.

This brings about much-needed predictability not only for parties, elected representatives, the Election Commission (EC) and party workers, but also ordinary citizens and businesses, in planning to advance their operations and life events.

Identifying the best interest of GPS and Sarawak

If GPS and Sarawak have benefitted from changes since 2018, what additional changes – from the new status quo that we are in now – would favour and disfavour them?

What would constitute the best interest of GPS and Sarawak with regard to government formation and change?

There appears to be at least four concerns.

First, no return to the dominance of a Barisan Nasional (BN)-like permanent coalition, which would naturally reduce GPS and Sarawak’s bargaining power.

Second, no over-strengthening of the Madani Government to the extent GPS cannot walk out and leave if its aspirations are frustrated.

Thirdly, no snap election is called when GPS is not ready for whatever reason.

Lastly, no free-for-all auctioning of SDs by individual MPs from GPS.

How would FTPA affect GPS and Sarawak?

Now, let’s examine the impacts of the proposed FTPA on GPS and Sarawak.

First, would FTPA transform the Madani Government into a permanent coalition like Gabungan Madani?

Definitely not. FTPA is a law that seeks to avoid early elections, especially at the whim of the prime minister.

It does not even rule out mid-term change of government, but merely codifies the process.

Permanent coalition, on the other hand, is caused or enabled by parties’ agreement to band together and not contest against each other in elections. FTPA would not affect GPS’ ability to stay as a standalone bloc from the national coalitions.

Second, FTPA also would not close the door for GPS to walk out of the Madani Government if some day it finds its aspirations for decentralisation frustrated or it gets better offer from other national coalitions.

Currently, motions of no-confidence can easily be blocked by the government with the help of the Dewan Rakyat Speaker. If anything, by easing and prioritising motions of confidence and no confidence, FTPA strengthens the bargaining power of GPS, instead of constraining it.

Third, as politics is full of uncertainty, GPS’ fortune in parliamentary elections may be hurt if a snap election is called at a time of adversity for GPS.

FTPA would protect GPS from any surprise move by the prime minister as he would not be able to seek royal consent without a two-thirds majority. And without the 23 votes from GPS, the prime minister has no two-thirds majority.

Finally, FTPA also protects GPS – even though a highly disciplined bloc – from any rogue MPs from its bench auctioning their SDs and affecting GPS’ bargaining power. That is why Umno is keen to close the door on SDs.

In the final analysis, FTPA is a law that would not only promote political stability, but also check on majoritarianism.

Sarawak being the most powerful state, and GPS having the de facto veto power in the Madani Government, stand to gain with another step to dismantle majoritarianism.

To address queries and concerns, Institutional and Reform Minister Datuk Seri Azalina Othman Said can consider having first public engagements on FTPA in Sarawak.

* Prof Wong Chin Huat is deputy head (strategy) for the Asia headquarters of United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) in Sunway University. He is a member of the Project Stability and Accountability for Malaysia (Projek SAMA).