Sarawak election expected after Gawai, says analyst

KUCHING (Feb 5): The Sarawak state election is expected to be held after the Gawai Dayak celebration, said political analyst Datuk Prof Dr Jayum Jawan.

The last state election was held on Dec 18, 2021.

“A festive atmosphere is expected to dominate the first half of 2026, beginning with Chinese New Year in mid-February, followed by Hari Raya in late March, and Gawai Dayak in early June.

“Such an upbeat mood presents a strategic opportunity for the government to dissolve the assembly and seek a fresh mandate,” he said.

Jayum, a fellow of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia and the Institution of Malay Rulers Chair, Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM), said signs of an early dissolution of the State Legislative Assembly (DUN) have been evident since the fourth quarter of 2025.

“The political atmosphere is highly favourable to GPS and its component parties – Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Sarawak United Peoples’ Party (SUPP), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Progressive Democratic Party (PDP),” he said.

He noted that under the leadership of Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg, the GPS government has rolled out several major initiatives to develop infrastructure.

“These achievements will be highlighted by the component parties as campaign strengths, arguing that the PBB-led GPS government deserves another term,” added Jayum, who is also Adjunct Professor at Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas).

While PBB, especially its Bumiputera wing, appears relatively stable, Jayum said the same cannot necessarily be said for PRS and PDP, which rely heavily on Dayak and Iban support.

These communities, he pointed out, have long claimed they remain marginalised in mainstream development.

He observed that the Chinese community appears generally calm under SUPP and the leadership of Datuk Amar Dr Sim Kui Hian.

Jayum cautioned that sentiments seen in Sabah rejecting ‘outsider’ parties could also affect Sarawak, potentially weakening the Democratic Action Party (DAP)’s performance.

“This may also hinder Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), as voters in Sabah have similarly rejected Malaya-based parties, including PKR and Umno, under the ‘Sabah First’ and ‘reject outsider parties’ sentiments,” he said.

Jayum said GPS will emphasise its delivery of mega projects such as the Kuching Urban Transportation System, green energy initiatives, the proposed new international airport, and the deep-sea port project.

He pointed out that Sarawak-owned airline AirBorneo began operations in January 2026 following the acquisition of MASwings from Malaysia Aviation Group.

Jayum noted that in November 2025, the DUN passed a RM12.6 billion state budget for 2026, which includes salary increases for state civil servants, free tertiary education at Sarawak-owned institutions, infrastructure development, and targeted financial assistance.

Jayum stressed that currently, no opposition party appears capable of seriously challenging GPS.

He said the revived Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak has yet to gain strong traction, while Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) has been dissolved, with members joining PDP in March 2024.

Parti Bumi Kenyalang (PBK), he noted, remains vocal on social media but lacks significant grassroots impact.

DAP Sarawak faces a dilemma as it is part of the federal unity government led by Pakatan Harapan but remains an opposition party in Sarawak. PKR, meanwhile, has had limited success in expanding its influence in the state, he said.

“The upcoming state election will be crucial in determining whether Sarawak’s race-based political patterns will continue, particularly as political dynamics in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah have evolved since the 2018 general election,” he added.