Umno wants freedom to rebuild before GE16 pacts, say analysts

By keeping its options open, Umno can plan to recover electoral support before committing to alliances.

An early binding pact would place Umno at risk of being trapped in a seat allocation that undersells its actual strength, and could entrench a “political dependency” on its allies rather than forcing the party to rebuild its Malay support base, said Awang Azman Pawi, a professor at Universiti Malaya.

“Umno’s long-term strategy must be to regain its stand-alone electoral value, so that other parties would want to collaborate with Umno because it is strong, not because it has no choice but to collaborate,” he told FMT.

Awang Azman also pointed out that Malaysia has “non-uniformed state politics,” which makes an established pact unworkable across different parts of the country.

“An Umno-PAS formula might be competitive in certain states, but the same formula would make it difficult for Umno to penetrate mixed seats or maintain relationships with Sabah and Sarawakian parties,” he added.

Hisommuddin Bakar, chief executive of Ilham Centre, said binding pacts would crowd out the room Umno needs to rebuild in Malay heartland seats, most of which are currently held by Perikatan Nasional.

Without clear evidence that Umno support has recovered, he said, the party would likely enter seat negotiations from a position of weakness. “In uncontested areas, the party’s machinery risks losing its function, becoming increasingly weak, and failing to produce a new generation of leadership,” he said.

The two analysts were commenting on calls by Umno leaders at the party’s general assembly for Umno to be unrestrained by binding pacts.

Deputy president Mohamad Hasan said that any political cooperation aimed at Malay unity must stay flexible, and that Umno did not need to be part of a new political coalition, and would remain in BN “now and forever”.

Johor Umno Youth chief Noor Azleen Ambrose went further, telling the assembly that Umno should not be bound to any party at state or federal level after GE16. He said grassroots Malays remain unhappy with the unity government arrangement struck with Pakatan Harapan after GE15.

However, Hisommudin said the two leaders’ remarks should be read as an attempt to restore Umno’s autonomy within existing arrangements, not a rejection of coalition politics outright.

Umno could still partner with other parties to meet immediate political needs, he said, but such partnerships should not become a “lifeline” the party’s survival depends on.

Hisommudin also said that Umno must first recover its past strength as that of the main Malay political platform with a comprehensive machinery and a direct relationship with the masses

“Once Umno regains substantial, widespread, and measurable support, the party will have the freedom to determine the most advantageous form of cooperation,” he said.

Awang Azman described this as Mohamad’s concept of “strategic flexibility”: Umno’s permanent home remains BN, but it can strike case-by-case understandings with other parties depending on the state, the election, and government stability.

Hisommudin added that the statements should not be read as unease within Umno about cooperating with PAS under the “ummah unity” banner. “Ummah unity can continue to be explored, but Umno wants to ensure that its identity, autonomy and its political interests are not eroded,” he said.