Unlikely for PAS to secure maiden win in Sarawak polls unless Malay-Melanau vote split, says analyst

KUCHING (March 26): Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) Sarawak is unlikely to secure its first seat in the upcoming state election unless there is a significant split in the Malay-Melanau vote, said political analyst Prof Dr Novel Lyndon.

The Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political scientology professor said the ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), particularly Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), has always traditionally maintained a stronghold in Malay-Melanau areas where PAS are likely to contest.

“Winning even one seat would be a massive psychological victory for them, proving that the ‘Green Wave’ can cross the South China Sea.

“However, without a split in PBB or a formal alliance with a local heavyweight, PAS remains the ‘underdog’ in a very tough neighborhood,” he said.

Novel, who conducted fieldwork during last year’s Sabah election, pointed out Sarawak presents a far tougher terrain for PAS, which achieved a breakthrough in Sabah by winning its first state seat.

“Replicating Sabah’s breakthrough is tough. Sarawak is a different ball game entirely,” he said.

PAS Sarawak commissioner Arifiriazul Paijo had recently announced the party’s plans to contest at least four seats, including Beting Maro, in the upcoming Sarawak election.

Arifiriazul had also said the party was open to various forms of collaboration with other parties, including Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS).

Novel said unlike Sarawak, PAS Sabah already has a nominated assemblyman through the appointment of Datuk Dr Aliakabar Gulasan due to the party’s alignment with the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).

He pointed out that PAS secured its direct electoral breakthrough in the 2025 Sabah election when Aliakabar won the Karambunai seat by a slim majority after years of building grassroots support in Muslim-majority coastal areas.

He also said PAS is unlikely to benefit from an appointment route into the Sarawak Legislative Assembly, as GPS holds a supermajority and has no political necessity to accommodate the party.

“GPS is also very protective of Sarawak’s multi-religious social fabric and has consistently distanced itself from the ‘green wave’ narrative seen in Peninsular Malaysia,” he added.

Novel said the state’s strong ‘Sarawak First’ sentiment poses a major hurdle for PAS, particularly as GPS has successfully positioned itself as the sole defender of state rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963.

“Any Malaya-based party, especially one with a strong religious agenda like PAS, often struggles to gain traction against the localist PBB — the dominant force in Malay-Melanau seats,” he said.

On the four seats likely to be contested by PAS, Novel believed the Islamist party may focus on Malay-Melanau majority areas where it has established grassroots networks, including through Pusat Asuhan Tunas Islam and its volunteer wing Jabatan Amal.

He opined that PAS’ immediate objective may not necessarily be to secure a majority, but rather to remain relevant by demonstrating its ability to garner votes in a competitive political landscape.

PAS is believed to be eyeing Beting Maro, Samariang, Pantai Damai, and Muara Tuang in the coming state polls.

In the 2021 state election, PAS only contested in Beting Maro, with Arifiriazul defeated by incumbent Datuk Razaili Gapor of GPS by 1,711 votes.

The party has been contesting the Beting Maro seat since 2001. Its best showing was in the 2011 state election when its candidate Abang Ahmad Kerdee Abang Masagus lost in a straight fight to Razaili by 391 votes.