GE16 expected to bring about Sabah-style shifting alliances

An analyst says electoral pacts would give way to post-election haggling, with current rivals possibly joining hands after the dust settles.

While key alliances have been forged since 2022, Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia said every party will be hoping to hedge their bets in order to at least have a hand in forming the government after GE16.

He said this could lead to sworn enemies joining hands to govern the country, much as the current partnership of longtime rivals Umno and DAP in Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s government.

“Yes, I expect to see more shifting alliances during the GE16 season, with political personalities and potential blocs keeping options open until the very end as to with whom and when to strike alliances, even with a hitherto political ‘enemy’,” said Fauzi.

“Power is the central political phenomenon, so whatever it takes to form a working alliance that collates power in a coherent formation will be prioritised once the election results beckon a solution,” he told FMT.

Fauzi added that the situation would be similar to the state elections in Sabah, where post-election negotiations are often seen as holding more importance than electoral pacts.

This was evident in last year’s Sabah polls, with the state government formed by Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, BN, PH, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku and Upko, among others, despite being bitter rivals on the campaign trail.

A key difference, he said, was how racial politics was more dominant in West Malaysia, with certain leaders likely to make use of such sentiments on the campaign trail.

Even then, Fauzi said, these same political figures are likely to be among the politicians leading post-election haggling and horse-trading.

Anwar has said he would not hold GE16 “in the next one or two months”, but speculation of a snap election sometime later this year persists.

Iran war upsets election plans

James Chin of the University of Tasmania believed that the fallout of the Iran war threw a spanner in the works of the government’s election plans, particularly to hold a snap GE16 this year.

He said the impact of high crude oil prices on inflation would deter Anwar from calling for the polls, adding that this was a bigger political risk than the domestic factors.

“The election timetable has been thrown into chaos. Whatever planning was made has been upended by Trump’s war in Iran,” he said.

Chin said Anwar’s choices were either delaying the elections in hopes of the war ending soon, or holding it sooner rather than later if the conflict’s impact is expected to last until the year-end.

Nonetheless, unlike Fauzi, Chin did not foresee any major shift in alliances, at least in facing GE16. He said it was clear that Anwar preferred PH going into the polls with its existing allies, particularly Umno, GPS and GRS.

“In terms of the opposition, it’s clear that Bersatu is more or less finished. PN is basically just PAS and all the smaller parties. I think Bersatu will find it very difficult to recover after Hamzah Zainudin left, along with a lot of their leaders and MPs.”

Uncertainty over Umno

PH and BN are allies in Anwar’s unity government, while Abang Johari Openg’s Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Hajiji Noor’s Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) provided crucial support for Anwar to form the government.

However, there has been pushback from certain quarters like Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh against the PH-BN alliance continuing in GE16.

In the past year, BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had repeatedly insisted on going into GE16 with PH. But he has been more non-committal of late, saying on Jan 6 that Umno would remain loyal to the unity government until GE16 arrives.

Umno secretary-general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki had also said in January that the party had yet to decide on its alliances for the next nationwide polls.

On the other hand, the opposition’s own pact appears to be unstable. PAS taking over the Perikatan Nasional chairmanship has led to speculation that Bersatu would focus more on the loose Ikatan Prihatin Rakyat alliance, while calls for the Islamic party to rekindle ties with Umno remain.