MetMalaysia: Heavy rain, strong winds and thunderstorms still expected despite general dry trend

KUCHING (Aug 5): Despite a general trend towards drier conditions, heavy rain coupled with strong winds and thunderstorms from squall lines may still occur on the west coast of the Peninsula, northern Sarawak and western Sabah, said the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia).

It said this is expected to be particularly prevalent in the early mornings from Aug 2024 to Jan 2025.

MetMalaysia issued this update in response to the ongoing Southwest Monsoon, which began May 17 and is expected to continue until Sept.

“During the Southwest Monsoon, winds typically blow consistently from the southwest with lower humidity and more stable atmospheric conditions. This leads to less cloud formations and consequently, lower rainfall distribution during this period.

“Therefore, most places across the country will experience a greater number of dry days,” MetMalaysia said in the Longterm Weather Outlook for Aug 2024-Jan 2025.

Additionally, it said haze may occur during this period, especially from July to Sept.

MetMalaysia also noted the weather outlook is based on consensus from several climate models and global phenomena influencing current weather patterns such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole are also considered.

“Most international climate models indicate the atmospheric cycle in the tropical region is consistent with the ENSO-Neutral condition.

“This ongoing ENSO-neutral state is expected to continue until Sept 2024. The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) in the Niño 3.4 monitoring area for April, May, and June 2024 is 0.4°C,” it said.

MetMalaysia will provide updates if there are significant changes to this long-term forecast.