Sabah at crossroad: GRS favoured to lead state government, voter trends signal shifts

KOTA KINABALU (Nov 28): Sabah stands at a pivotal political crossroad as voters head to the polls in the 17th State Election, with the outcome likely to shape governance, development priorities, and party dynamics for the next five years.

A final study by ILHAM Centre shows that Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) retains enough support to lead negotiations with local parties and independent candidates, potentially surpassing the simple majority threshold to form government.

Analysts point to several factors giving GRS an advantage, including incumbency, Datuk Seri Panglima Hajiji Noor’s moderate and steady image, continued stronghold support along the west coast, and a campaign narrative focused on stability and continuity.

The study projects GRS could win around 26 of the 55 contested seats, positioning it as the party with the largest number of safe seats.

Candidate-centric voting

Sabahans remain highly candidate-focused, prioritising leaders with proven track records of service to their communities.

Voters value leaders who are caring, consistently perform well, and actively engage with constituents, giving incumbents a distinct advantage.

Among youth voters, however, preference leans toward fresh faces, charisma, and social media presence.

In ethnic Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) constituencies, voting remains highly localised, often shaped by influential community figures, traditional party loyalties, and extended family networks.

For instance, Tambunan is closely linked with Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STARSabah), Kadamaian with United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (Upko), and Kundasang with Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS).

Local issues drive the narrative

Throughout the campaign, Sabah rights and autonomy emerged as dominant themes, including 40 per cent of state revenue, Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) implementation, and state identity.

Campaign slogans such as “Our Home, We Care”, “Sabah for Sabahans”, and “Justice for Sabah” resonated with 77 per cent of surveyed voters.

Economic and public service issues — including cost of living, water supply, electricity, infrastructure, and youth employment — remain important, but pro-Sabah narratives strongly shape voter sentiment.

Shifts in urban and Chinese voters

The study observed a noticeable swing among Chinese and urban KDM voters, particularly in Likas, Inanam, Luyang, Kapayan, and Api-Api.

These voters, highly active on social media, displayed growing resistance to Peninsular-based party influence, benefiting arti Warisan (Warisan) as a recipient of anti-Pakatan Harapan (PH) sentiment.

Hajiji vs Shafie: The Chief Minister race

Hajiji and Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal dominate voter expectations for the post-election Chief Minister.

Hajiji’s steady leadership and proven track record resonate with a majority, while Shafie offers charisma and strong oratory skills, particularly in challenging opposition strongholds.

Hajiji is widely regarded as best positioned to unite party leaders post-election.

Predicted outcomes

ILHAM Centre categorises constituencies into three:

Clear winners: GRS projected to secure at least 26 seats, mostly incumbents like Sulaman, Karanaan, Kuala Penyu, and Membakut.

Competitive but leaning seats: Warisan holds six strongholds, potentially rising to 14 with urban swing votes.

Highly contested seats: 13 constituencies remain open; PN is likely competitive in only two, Karambunai and Sugut.

Low voter turnout could advantage incumbents, giving GRS the opportunity to stabilise the assembly through alliances and strategic negotiations.

Local vs national party dynamics

The election has reignited debates between local and national parties.

Rural voters tend to favour local parties championing Sabah-centric agendas, while urban voters prefer local parties collaborating with national coalitions.

This reflects a growing assertion of Sabahans’ desire to shape state governance and prioritise local issues.

As Sabah heads to the polls, the state faces a defining moment.

Voters are urged to consider their choices carefully, as the results could either consolidate existing development paths or usher in a new chapter in governance, autonomy, and political identity.