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NIBONG TEBAL: Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate for the Sungai Bakap by-election Dr Joohari Ariffin admits that he bears a heavy responsibility to help the coalition recapture the seat.
Joohari, in a get-together with the media on Sunday, said that it admittedly put pressure on him because the seat is not status quo and he needs to work hard to wrest back the seat, which was PKR’s stronghold for three terms since 2008 before it was won by PAS in 2023.
PKR secretary-general Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, when met after the candidate nomination on Saturday, is the best opportunity for Pakatan Harapan (PH) to potentially recapture the seat, thereby contributing to the strengthening of the Unity Government in Penang.
The question now is whether the former director of the Northern Branch of Institut Aminuddin Baki can fulfil the high expectations by changing the status quo of the Sungai Bakap state seat.
Political analyst Prof Dr Jayum Anak Jawan expressed confidence that Joohari, a former teacher, could break the status quo of the seat. He emphasised that Joohari, supported by the coalition at federal and state levels, is not an ‘underdog’ candidate.
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He noted that while Joohari acknowledged personal pressure, the Sungai Bakap by-election is viewed as a battleground where Malay political parties vie for Malay voter support, transcending individual candidates.
“It is between PKR (+ Umno) and Bersatu (+ PAS). A win for PKR and PH will energise Malay support towards these two. This battleground underscores the shift in Malay support,” said the Universiti Putra Malaysia Political Science lecturer to Bernama.
Jayum, who is also a Fellow of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, said the straight fight between PH and Perikatan Nasional (PN) devoid of third-party disruption, underscores the strategic planning by ruling and opposition parties for the by-election.
Senior lecturer Jamaie Hamil from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Political Science programme echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Joohari has a bright opportunity to disrupt the status quo of the Sungai Bakap state seat, often regarded as a ‘grey area’. However, success hinges on several factors.
“Firstly, it depends on the campaign strategy employed by the Unity Government to instil confidence among voters that could lead to victory. Secondly, even if PAS secures victory in the constituency, its impact may be limited since Penang is under the Unity Government.
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“Thirdly, considering the states governed by PN, there has been no significant progress or initiatives that could rival those under the Unity Government, including in Sabah and Sarawak. If the Unity machinery successfully convinces voters of their track record, this would be an advantage for the PH candidate,” he explained
Reflecting on PKR’s victories in the Sungai Bakap state assembly seat during the General Elections (GEs) of 2008, 2013, and 2018—where the party secured a majority ranging from over 1,800 to 2,300 votes, Jamaie expressed optimism about the coalition led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s prospects to reclaim the seat in the upcoming by-election.
“Besides, if we look at the history of Sungai Bakap in the three previous GEs, the actual competition was between PKR and Barisan Nasional (BN), not with PAS. PAS did not even give PKR competition before,” he said.
The political observer also said that the absence of independent candidates or other small political parties in the by-election reflects a trend observed in the previous seven by-elections. This trend underscores that the true competition lies solely between the government and the opposition coalition, rendering these smaller entities irrelevant in such electoral arenas.
In the upcoming July 6 polls, Joohari will face a challenge from Nibong Tebal PAS deputy chief Abidin Ismail, who is representing PN, in a direct contest for the seat. The by-election is being held following the death of incumbent Nor Zamri Latiff on May 24 due to stomach inflammation.
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In the state election held in August last year, Nor Zamri who was Nibong Tebal PAS chief defeated PH candidate Nurhidayah Che Rose with a majority of 1,563 votes.
The Sungai Bakap state seat which is one of three state seats under the Nibong Tebal Parliamentary, has 39,279 registered voters consisting of 39,222 ordinary voters and 57 police personnel.
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